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Demographic development of small settlements: past, present and future
Torgalo, Alexandr ; Bednářová, Hana (advisor) ; Čermák, Zdeněk (referee)
Rural depopulation is a long-standing affair, taking place in a number of advanced countries. In the European space, mass migration from the country to towns occurred for the first time in the first half of the nineteenth century. In the second half of the twentieth century, rural depopulation accelerated, but the at the beginning of the new millennium it slowed down or even came to a halt. The study wants to analyse demographic development in the smallest settlements which are most threatened by depopulation. There was a comparison of the population development at present and in the past (since the 1970s), the development in peripheral and non-peripheral (core) areas and the development in the smallest rural settlements in comparison with bigger ones. This purpose was served by the indicator "index of change in population number" for three, different development periods. For the sake of delineation of the problem areas, a use was made of further indicators of demographic nature (such as indicators of age). For every unit, they were evaluated by the "rank" method. In the end, these problem areas were compared with the typology of the country. The main finding of the study was that the fall in the population number stopped in all size groups of settlements, including the smallest ones, and in most...
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Statistical methods in demographic forecasting
Šimpach, Ondřej ; Langhamrová, Jitka (advisor) ; Arltová, Markéta (referee) ; Palát, Milan (referee)
Dissertation thesis creates a complex and modern scheme for stochastic modeling of demographic processes, which is universally applicable to any population in the world. All calculations are described in detail on the data of the Czech Republic. Throughout the work the attention is drawn to the issues, that every analyst must necessarily take into account in order to obtain correct results. Data comes mostly from the Czech Statistical Office database. However, some data matrices had to be calculated for the purposes of the thesis. Particular demographic processes (mortality, fertility and migration) are modeled using selected modern approaches (ARIMA models, Lee-Carter method) and based on the constructed models these processes are forecasted to the future. Using partially projected results a comprehensive demographic projection of the population of the Czech Republic is created up to the year 2050. However, not on the basis of the current state and expert expectations of the future development, but based on sophistically projected demographic events, which are explained using the trends and main components of their previous development. This demographic projection is created in three scenarios (marked SC1, SC2 and SC3), which are made from selected optimal models, presented in particular sections of the work. One part of the thesis is also the backward retropolation of age-specific number of net migrants by sex in the Czech Republic since 1948. On its basis the analysis and prediction of the migration can be done. The thesis is a synthesis of the projections of demographic processess of mortality, fertility, and migration. Final results are confronted with three scenarios of population projections of the Czech Republic created by the Czech Statistical Office and five scenarios of population projections by Eurostat. The purely statistical approach of demographic forecasting in comparison with deterministic models and expert expectations has its positives and negatives. Therefore, the different results due to various methodological approaches are discussed and compared in the conclusion of the thesis.
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Influence of Family Policy on the Development of Demographic Processes Focused on Pardubice Region
Čechalová, Kateřina ; Cséfalvaiová, Kornélia (advisor) ; Šimková, Martina (referee)
The object of this essay is to examine the development of family policy and its effect on changes in demographic behavior of the inhabitants in the Czech Republic and the Pardubice Region during the period from 1989 to present. The first chapter describes the institution of the family and forms of family policy at the national and regional level. The theoretical part is followed by the second chapter, which analyzes the individual subsidies of the state to support families with children. It also includes a graphical representation of indicators describing trends of natality, fertility, nuptality and divorcity which may be affected by the government action. The last part contains an analysis of empirical research, which verifies the results of the previous chapters in practice. By the results, solutions to the current situation are suggested.
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Social services for seniors in Strakonice
Kulířová, Petra ; Poláková, Olga (advisor) ; Szabová, Lucia (referee)
The diploma thesis evaluates the capacity and financial availability of social housing for the elderly living in a town called Strakonice, comparing it to the demographic processes related to the age structure of this town. This thesis also introduces all social services relating to the ageing population of the Czech Republic and compares them with the demographic forecast process and the country's age structure. A similar approach is used when analyzing this reality in the town Strakonice. The secondary objective of this thesis is to detect all sorts of social services funding, considering the revenue and expenditure structure of elderly social housing in the Czech Republic and also in the town Strakonice. In the last part of this paper, there is an economic analysis of one residential social service, which is designed for seniors living in the town Strakonice.
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